UN Report: India's Population to Hit 1.46 Billion in 2025, Fertility Rate Declines
According to the UNFPA's 2025 State of World Population report, India's population is projected to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, remaining the world's highest. The report notes a significant demographic shift, with India's total fertility rate falling to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. Despite this, India has a substantial youth population (24% aged 0-14) and 68% in the working-age bracket (15-64).
Unpacked:
India must create millions of jobs annually to absorb new entrants into the workforce, address skill gaps, and tackle the low participation of women in the labor force. Simultaneously, the country faces rising demands for education, healthcare, and infrastructure as its population ages, straining resources and social services.
A fertility rate below the replacement level (2.1 births per woman) means India’s population growth will eventually slow and possibly decline. This demographic shift can lead to an aging population, fewer working-age people supporting more elderly, and potential economic challenges if not addressed with proper policies.
Both India and China are experiencing falling fertility rates and an aging population. However, China’s population is already in decline, while India’s is still growing and is projected to peak by the 2060s. India also has a younger median age and a higher proportion of young people compared to China.
Some see India’s large working-age population as a demographic dividend that could drive economic growth if leveraged with jobs and education. Others warn it could become a crisis due to high unemployment, poverty, wealth disparity, and pressure on resources and infrastructure if not managed effectively.