Monsoon Likely to Reach Kerala Early on May 27, Predicts IMD
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, likely around May 27. The monsoon is vital for India's agriculture-dependent economy, impacting livelihoods for about 42.3% of the population and contributing 18.2% to the GDP. An early and normal monsoon would be beneficial for the Kharif sowing season and could help moderate food inflation, providing crucial relief amidst current national security concerns and economic pressures.
Unpacked:
The timing and distribution of the monsoon are crucial because over half of India's cultivated land is rain-dependent, and the majority of major crops rely on monsoon rains. Delays or uneven rainfall can disrupt sowing schedules, reduce crop yields, and lead to higher food prices, directly impacting farmers' incomes and national food security.
Kharif crops, such as rice, pulses, cotton, and oilseeds, are sown at the start of the monsoon and harvested in autumn. Timely and adequate monsoon rains are essential for their growth. Poor or erratic rainfall can reduce sown area, lower yields, and cause economic losses to farmers and the broader agricultural sector.
Abnormal monsoons, such as below-normal or erratic rainfall, have led to crop losses, reduced sowing areas, and elevated food prices. For example, in 2023, India experienced its driest August since 1901, causing declines in the production of pulses, oilseeds, and other crops, which in turn affected rural incomes and contributed to inflation.
Climate change has increased the volatility and unpredictability of the Indian monsoon, causing more frequent droughts, uneven rainfall, and extreme weather events like floods and landslides. Scientists note that warming oceans and phenomena like El Niño can further disrupt monsoon patterns, posing significant challenges for agriculture and water security.