Above-Normal Rainfall Likely in August and September, IMD Forecasts
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal rainfall for the second half of the monsoon season, covering August and September. Overall rainfall is expected to be 106% of the Long Period Average. Most parts of the country are likely to receive normal to above-normal rain, with the exception of the Northeast, parts of eastern India, and some central and peninsular regions. The forecast is critical for the agriculture sector, which is heavily dependent on monsoon rains.
Unpacked:
The monsoon supplies about 70–90% of India’s annual rainfall, directly impacting crop sowing and yields. Around 60% of Indian farmland is rain-fed, and 61% of farmers depend on monsoon rains for agriculture. A good monsoon boosts farm production, rural incomes, and food security, while poor rainfall can cause crop losses and economic hardship.
The Northeast, parts of eastern India, and some central and peninsular regions are expected to receive below-normal rainfall. These areas may face reduced water availability, lower crop yields, and increased risk of drought or delayed sowing, potentially threatening local food security and farmer livelihoods.
Erratic rainfall can disrupt sowing schedules, damage standing crops, and cause both droughts and floods. For example, heavy late-season rains can destroy crops ready for harvest, while dry early monsoons delay planting. This unpredictability leads to reduced yields, financial losses for farmers, and increased food prices.
Improving irrigation infrastructure, adopting climate-smart cropping patterns, and using weather forecasting technologies can help. Micro-irrigation systems (like drip and sprinkler irrigation), community water projects, and policy support for crop diversification can make agriculture more resilient to erratic rainfall and climate change.